Match Preview: Atlanta United vs. NYCFC (with Trey Fillmore of The Outfield)
Atlanta United vs New York City FC
Date: March 29, 2025; 7:30pm EST
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (42,500 Capacity)
Tickets: https://www.atlutd.com/tickets/single-matches
How to Watch: Apple TV - MLS Season Pass
Atlanta United hosts NYCFC in a match that already seems like a must-win after a 1-2-2 start to the year. Luckily, many players are returning from injury and the international break. New York City enter Mercedes-Benz Stadium at 2-2-1 having been unbeaten since March 1, but they have a weaker roster on paper than Atlanta.
History:
NYCFC (27 Goals For) 5-8-4 (24 Goals For) Atlanta United
These teams play close matches against one another, with 4 straight draws in the last 4 matchups. NYCFC haven’t beat Atlanta since October 9, 2022, but Atlanta haven’t won since August 11, 2019. That is over half a decade since a victory! The most famous matchups were Atlanta’s 1-0 and 3-1 wins in the 2018 Eastern Conference Semifinals, the year they won MLS Cup.
Is this the game Miguel Almiron opens his account for the season with the Five Stripes? He returns to this matchup being tied for the third highest goal scorer with three.
Injury Report:
NYCFC
OUT - Malachi Jones, Jacob Arroyave, Andres Perea, Tayvon Gray
Atlanta United
OUT - Jamal Thiare, Edwin Mosquera, Tristan Muyumba
Lineup Predictions:
NYCFC -
Alonso Martinez returns from his Costa Rican international duty as some much needed offensive juice for the boys in blue, being the only proven goal scoring threat on New York’s roster. Head Coach Pascal Jansen has not been afraid to shake up his front line this season, so don’t be surprised to see Agustin Ojeda or even teenager Maximo Carrizo join the ranks given Wolf’s unimpressive start to the year and Fernandez’s quiet outing against the Crew. The biggest question mark is midfield maestro Keaton Parks’ foot injury, as the team waits to see if it will have a long term impact. If so, expect young homegrown Jonny Shore to slot in the double pivot.
Atlanta -
Eight players return from international break and United can play a near full-strength lineup. I expect Will Reilly to make another start as Klich picks back up the speed of the game from his injury and the fact that Reilly himself had a great performance in his MLS debut.
The biggest change is swapping Almiron and Saba Lobjanidze. Saba did very well on the right side at Cincinnati, forcing a late own goal and tallying an assist to Latte Lath. Forcing Almiron to go out wide left will allow Aleksey Miranchuk to finally cut into open space in the middle of the final third, space that he hasn’t had all season (and has subsequently made his positioning on the field reserved). I do not believe Deila will consider Miranchuk out wide and Almiron at the 10, as Miranchuk will cut inside from the right as he did previously with Atalanta (in Italy) and will cause the same spacing issues.
Analysis/Predictions:
New York City (Trey) -
NYCFC greet their cup winning manager Ronny Deila from the other side of the halfway line for the first time since his return to the league, but with a much different squad and approach than when he was at the helm for the pigeons. Though they will still similarly want to possess the ball as much as they can, expect Pascal Jansen to reemphasize his venomous one-sided man-marking press against a more talented roster on the road.
After a dreadful offensive performance against Columbus New York will surely lean on Alonso Martinez’s elite goal scoring capabilities now that he is available again for selection, so look for NYC to thread the ball into his dangerous runs in both open play and on the counter early and often. The ageless 38 year old wonder Maxi Moralez will continue to be the string puller up front, bouncing from sideline to sideline to support whichever set of wingers line up.
The biggest question will be whether field tilt machine Keaton Parks makes the trip after an early exit due to injury in the previous match, where the entire team’s offensive and defensive movement fell apart the minute he left the pitch. If he can’t go, New York will likely try to suffocate with the ball as much as possible while playing compact back lines, depending on veteran leaders Matt Freese and Thiago Martins to hold the squad down. Even so, the disparity in set piece prowess between the two squads and a tough road atmosphere might be too much for NYCFC to overcome against their old gaffer.
Prediction: 2-1 Atlanta United
Atlanta (Calum) -
Atlanta’s draw in Ohio last week felt like a win. The loss the week before against Miami was a commendable effort. Things are slowly getting better, and sooner or later that will turn into results.
If there is a change in tactics from inverted to true wingers Saturday night, I don’t see why Atlanta can’t excel at home. Emmanuel Latte Lath has already thrived in the air this season, and more balls from Almiron and Saba will add to Amador and Lennon’s onslaught.
A key worry facing NYCFC is shutting down Keaton Parks, their efficient #8 who has bullied Atlanta in the midfield for years. However, if Slisz and Reilly can cut off piercing through balls from his feet, United can gain an advantage. It will also help that Atlanta at home will likely keep a lot of possession, the exact thing NYCFC wants to do in their style of play.
As much as I want to go against myself after seeing my positive predictions for Atlanta fall short the last few weeks, I can see the club getting a win here. Maxi Moralez will keep things closer then they should be, and not all the kinks of the attack will be worked out, but it will be a performance deserving of a win.
Prediction: 2-1 Atlanta United