The USL Votes Yes on Promotion & Relegation: All We Know So Far and How It Affects Southeast Clubs
Wow!
According to The Athletic, USL owners voted on Tuesday via supermajority to officially adopt promotion and relegation when the USL First Division launches in 2028. It would be full pro-rel between the Premier, Championship, and League One divisions.
Unlike a closed league like MLS, the USL will now have teams move up and down their tiered leagues based on performance. Due to the heavy reliance on game-day revenue and a lesser media deal then other major soccer leagues with pro-rel around the world (In the Prem, LaLiga, Bundesliga, etc., relegations means major losses of millions of dollars), owners felt comfortable with the effects of relegation on their clubs’ financial well-being for the short and medium-term, the time they’d need to compete with the MLS the most.
Currently, there are no solid plans on how pro-rel would be implemented, how money earned by the league would be split by division, and how clubs who paid more to join a higher division previously would be recompensed. Among all those problems lies that of the USSF’s Pro League Standards. Recently, I created a model for the USL First Division that included promotion and relegation under the standards, and simply put pro-rel will only work under certain classifications and circumstances with approval of waivers for certain clubs… between the Championship and League One. First Division to Championship pro-rel is impossible under the current standards. This move by the USL signals that a change must be coming to rules many in the lower-league world have seen as restrictive.
Now, how does this affect clubs in the Southeast? Well, the clubs most likely to start in the Premier Division, Birmingham Legion and expansion side Sporting Jacksonville, would be susceptible to relegation. While it is unknown how relegation would affect a team like Jacksonville, the Legion have had dwindling attendance for years. You feel that game day revenue would surely be hurt if they fall.
The Charleston Battery, North Carolina FC, Tampa Bay Rowdies, and Miami FC could go up or down depending on performance. Miami fans, if you don’t improve in 3 years time, hold your breath, and that’s the same for NCFC. However, both markets have huge potential for growth if they are promoted to the first tier. The Rowdies and Battery would likely fare fine if they fell to a lower division due to their strong fan culture.
For One Knoxville, Greenville Triumph, FC Naples, Chattanooga Red Wolves, South Georgia Tormenta, Charlotte Independence, and expansion sides Sarasota Paradise, Pensacola FC, and Dothan United, the only place to go is up! Attendance will likely only go up as the team goes up tiers, unless they are poorly marketed (Charlotte and Chattanooga). You do worry if a team is stagnant in League One for a while if the interest locally will drop off, especially if there isn’t much support already, but that is just a fear. Lower markets like Naples, Sarasota, Knoxville, and Dothan have the potential to thrive in this system.
We’ve got a long time to learn logistics and an even longer time to see if this will help or hurt clubs in the end. No matter what happens, this decision by USL owners is one of, if not the biggest decisions in US Soccer history.
This is a little worrying to me; I like the idea of pro-rel, but I question whether it can be translated into the U.S. soccer landscape. If nothing else, it will be interesting!
I'm betting there will be an "American capitalistic feature" to the Pro/Rel, such as insurance from being relegated if the club owns its own soccer-specific facility that reliably draws massive crowds and shows decent on-field quality. That is the only way to reassure future investors that their investments won't be swiftly jeopardized due to immediate relegation.