Match Preview: Nashville SC vs Charlotte FC
(Image courtesy of Charlotte FC)
Fresh off a pair of respective losses heading into matchday seven in Major League Soccer, it’s up to Charlotte FC and Nashville SC to right their respective ships, perhaps at the expense of one another.
Both clubs currently sit on ten points, with identical 3W1D2L records, and both with plus-four goal differentials. This currently locks these two southeastern clubs into fifth and sixth place respectively in the Eastern Conference.
It’s an early kick from the Queen City, let’s get you caught up before the whistle goes at the bank. As always, let’s dive in.
Match Details
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Time: approx. 12:30PM EST/1:30PM CST
Referees: Lukasz Szpala (REF), Corey Parker (AR1), Kyle Atkins (AR2), Calin Radosav (4TH), Greg Dopka (VAR), Tom Supple (AVAR)
Head Coaches: Dean Smith (CLT), B.J. Callaghan (NSH)
Watch: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV+, re-airing in Charlotte area on TV64 on Monday at 11PM EST
Commentators: Neil Sika & Lloyd Sam (English), Jose Bauz & Carlos Suarez (Spanish)
Charlotte Radio: WFNZ 92.7 FM (English), WOLS 106.1 FM (Spanish)
Nashville Radio: WGFX 104.5 FM (English)
The History
Saturday afternoon’s matchup will mark the sixth occasion Nashville and Charlotte have met on the pitch, all in MLS regular season play.
In these meetings, the clubs are dead even on results. Nashville and Charlotte both have two wins in the series, with the remaining matching being a 1-1 draw at GEODIS Park in 2023.
At Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, as they have been known to, hold the advantage, with both their wins over the Boys in Gold coming at home, including the most recent meeting between these clubs, on May 11th of 2024. On that day, a 52nd minute Patrick Agyemang goal was the lone separator in what became a 1-0 victory for Charlotte.
That meeting would turn out to be the second to last game in charge of Nashville SC for former head coach Gary Smith, meaning Dean Smith (not related) and BJ Callaghan have never faced off.
However, Nashville does have a win at the Bank under their belts, with a 2-1 victory in May of 2023 the lone road victory in this series to date.
The next meeting between these clubs will be back in the Music City on May 10th. Should also be noted both clubs are participating in this year’s edition of the Lamar Hunt US Open Cup, and could also meet there as well.
Injury Report
Charlotte FC
OUT- Nimfasha Berchimas, Brandon Camridge, Jahlane Forbes, Nikola Petkovic
QUESTIONABLE-
Nashville SC
OUT- Bryan Acosta, Julian Gaines, Maximus Ekk, Tyler Boyd
QUESTIONABLE-
Charlotte Lineup Prediction
I don’t think much will change with the lineup, still going with a 4-3-3. However, my prediction is that Tim Ream moves over to the left center back position with Souleyman Doumbia taking over at the left back spot. No other changes, although I wouldn’t be against Toklomati starting upfront with Patrick Agyemang being used as a sub in the second half (after 60 minutes or so).
Nashville Lineup Prediction
Just a couple changes to the lineup that saw Nashville narrowly lose at home last week to Cincinnati to note. Andy Najar regains his starting position after playing it a bit safe off international duty last week, joining Dan Lovitz, Jack Maher, Walker Zimmerman and of course, keeper Joe Willis at the back.
The other change comes in midfield, I think matchup in this one requires a bit different passing skillset than Patrick Yazbek has at the moment, so Gastón Brugman takes his place alongside Eddi Tagseth.
The front four of Sam Surridge, Ahmed Qasem, Hany Mukhtar, and Alex Muyl remains the same for now but that second wing spot occupied by Muyl is just creeping into contention for the likes of Jonny Pérez and Jacob Shaffelburg.
Analysis & Prediction
Alex McCaskey:
After a disappointing loss in Colorado last week, the boys are back at home as they welcome Nashville SC for a 2:30 pm kickoff this afternoon. It’s still early in the season but this is an important matchup for Charlotte. The Crown comes into the match sitting in 5th place in the east and right behind them in 6th, also with ten points is Nashville. It’s gonna be an exciting afternoon in the Queen City.
Both teams are tied on points and goal difference with Charlotte scoring one more goal (ten to Nashville's nine). As the standings show, not much separates these two on paper but when the whistle sounds all that goes out of the window. I think Charlotte needs to come out of the gate putting pressure on the Nashville defense and hopefully a goal (or more) will come. Taking the lead early can help Charlotte control the game. I’ve been impressed with the goalkeeping and defense so far this season, so if the score reads 1-0 or 2-0 at the break, I expect Charlotte to come away with three points.
I predict Charlotte wins 2-1. The first goal came from Pep Biel in the first half and Nashville defender Josh Bauer equalizes on a header from a corner near the end of the half. Both teams struggle to break through in the second half and after the 60 minute mark, Patrick Agyemang gets his second goal of the season on an assist from Pep Biel (an assist that helps him stay atop the league in that category).
Ronan Briscoe:
Nashville SC looks like a completely different team than the last time these clubs met, not only just because they’ve changed managers since. They’ve completely altered their playstyle and game model and at their best look among the top seven or eight teams in the league.
However, they’ve got a real test this week, in two ways. Firstly, this team has not played on turf yet this season. That sounds super trivial, but it really changes the way the ball reacts. It’s just a big adjustment for clubs, and can lead to some wacky results.
Charlotte, for instance, has played 17 games in the last calendar year on grass, and 22 on turf. On grass, Charlotte has just four wins, but on turf, they have 11. That’s a 23% win percentage on grass, compared to 50% on turf.
What has Nashville done on both surfaces in that time period? They’ve played 30 games on grass over the last year, winning ten of them, for a 30% win percentage. On turf, they’ve played just four games, winning just once, for a 25% win percentage.
Nashville weren’t very good on any surface last season, but you can still see they were slightly better on the surface they play their home games on, which is of course natural grass.
In fact, Nashville have only ever won four games on turf in their history, with a pair of wins on the road in Atlanta joining one in Charlotte and a season opening win over the Seattle Sounders in 2022.
The other test Nashville will face is a Charlotte team that really does not like to lose at home. As stated earlier, since Nashville won here in May of 2023, Sir Minty has seen just four losses at the Bank, and that’s almost a two year stretch.
Maybe these two issues are correlated, but either way, Charlotte are incredibly difficult to beat at home. The last team to beat them at home was Atlanta, who also play on turf, we’re ignoring that one.
Inter Miami beat them at home in July of 2024 without either of Lionel Messi or Luis Suarez available. What did they do? Despite Charlotte outshooting Miami 14-7 on that day, the Herons were successful playing the long ball. They had 32 accurate long balls on that day compared to Charlotte’s 18.
Nashville is also a team that has seen success with long balls in recent weeks, most notably in a road victory against Philadelphia a few weeks ago.
It would be incredibly boring if I joined Alex in picking Charlotte to win. Someone here has to look like an idiot, and who knows, maybe it’s a draw and it’s both of us. But I’ll take Nashville in a surprise 2-1 victory, with an open play goal from Ahmed Qasem, and yes, ridicule me for this all you want, a Hany Mukhtar penalty goal. Those goals are split either side of a Pep Biel goal, don’t bother asking me for what minute.
Either way, Nashville escapes with three points, even if by a bit of luck.
Join Alex and I sometime after the game for our match recap, so we can take a look at what happened, and try to understand why.
